Photo credit: Greg Stein/MADE Hoops
Evaluating grassroots players by saving off all the box scores, calculating box plus-minus, and see what that reveals is something I have been doing for over a decade. I first started doing this back when I was writing for ESPN.com
At a later point I might write in explicit detail about the process, and how it could benefit any college team. But for now, this post is covering the top performers in the adidas 3SSB 16U league this past summer, and highlighting interesting observations purely from a statistical perspective. Is this ideal? No, in fact I just wrote about why that is the case. But when there are so many players to consider, and time is super valuable (specifically for college staffs), this is better than sitting down, watching way too much film, and travelling to all of these events. Using these stats should be the first pass for any coaching staff, and would save them so much time by preventing them from chasing down bad intel, and wasting time watching film trying to find a guy that pops that no one else sees.
The Top 10
The Full Spreadsheet
The Analysis
Josiah Rose has the potential to be the top player in the 2028 class. Rose is a 2028 guard at Faith Family Academy of Oak Cliff in Texas. He's uncommitted and already has an enormous recruitment: Louisville, Texas Tech, TCU, Indiana, Kansas, Baylor, Texas A&M and UCLA, among others are interested.
While he missed the final weekend of the circuit, he put up insane shooting numbers and ended his campaign with the following stat line:
He shot 50% from 3PT and when you combine that with good free throw shooting (career 80.2% on 192 attempts), there is no doubt he will be a good shooter form long range at the next level. Speaking of free throws, he takes a ton of them.
Aiden Shaw may have one of the strongest two-way guard profiles that seems to be going unnoticed:
19.2 PPG
5.2 RPG
2.4 APG
2.1 SPG
1.0 BPG
+3.05 OBPM
+3.74 DBPM
6.8 overall BPM
The combination of two steals and one block per game from a guard is unusual. The 6’1” guard out of California only has one concern, and that is shooting. He only shot 28% from three, but has a serviceable 77% from the free throw line which makes me not worried about his ability to shoot at the next level. If Shaw becomes a credible shooter, that profile becomes extremely interesting because almost everything else is already there. I expect him to shoot up in ranking.
His historical statistical comps, according to the neilball database, are also super intriguing: CJ Rosser, Naz Reid, and Caleb Holt.